ASSESSING THE CAPACITY RELIABILITY OF AGEING WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

Authors: XU C.¹; GOULTER I.²; TICKLE K.³

Source: Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems, Volume 20, Number 2, June 2003 , pp. 119-133(15)

Publisher: Taylor and Francis Ltd

Abstract:

This paper presents two new efficient algorithms for estimating the capacity reliability of ageing water distribution systems recognising the uncertainties in nodal demands and the pipe capacity. Capacity reliability is defined as the probability that the nodal demand is met at or over the prescribed minimum pressure for a fixed network configuration. Uncertainties in the nodal demands and values of pipe roughness are modelled by a probabilistic approach. The impacts of these uncertainties on the hydraulic performance of water distribution systems are then assessed by probabilistic hydraulic models based on the mean value first order second moment (MVFOSM) method and the first order reliability method (FORM) respectively. The performances of the models are evaluated and compared by application to an example network. Results from this application indicate that both models provide reasonably accurate estimates of capacity reliability of a deteriorated distribution network in the cases that the uncertainty in the random variables is small. However, FORM performs much better in cases involving large variability in the nodal demands and pipe roughnesses.

Keywords: Reliability; Probabilistic modelling; Uncertainty; Water distribution networks; First order reliability analysis

Document Type: Research article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1028660021000051620

Affiliations: 1: Water Corporation of Western Australia, P.O. Box 100, Leederville, WA. 6902, Australia 2: Charles Sturt University, Bathurst, NSW 2795, Australia 3: Central Queensland University, Rockhampton, Qld. 4702, Australia

Publication date: 2003-06-01

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