Analytical Prediction of Capsizing Probability of a Ship in Beam Wind and Waves

Authors: Paroka, Daeng; Ohkura, Yuuichi; Umeda, Naoya

Source: Journal of Ship Research, Volume 50, Number 2, June 2006 , pp. 187-195(9)

Publisher: Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers (SNAME)

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Abstract:

This paper presents a set of formulae to evaluate capsizing probability of a ship in both beam wind and waves based on a piece-wise linear approximation of roll restoring moment with and without simplifications as an extension of the work by Belenky (1993). The new simplified formula is also proposed on the basis of stochastic properties of roll motion near the angle of vanishing stability. These formulae are applied to a car carrier having a large windage area. As a result, it was pointed out that Belenky's simplified method could overestimate capsizing probability if the apparent roll angle model is used. The capsizing probability in both wind and waves is definitely larger than that in waves on their own. It was remarked that steeper waves or narrower wave spectrum do not always provide larger capsizing probability.

Document Type: Research article

Publication date: 2006-06-01

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The Journal of Ship Research is a quarterly publication providing highly technical papers on applied research in hydrodynamics, propulsion, ship motions, structures, and vibrations. While the Journal requires that papers present the results of research that advances ship and ocean science and engineering, most contributions bear directly on other disciplines, such as civil and mechanical engineering, applied mathematics, and numerical analysis. High quality papers are contributed from the U.S., Canada and overseas, with representation from established authorities as well as new researchers.
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