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Evaluation of operational weather forecasts: Applicability for flood forecasting in alpine Bavaria

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Abstract:

In this study, a range of operational weather forecast models, both deterministic and ensemble (probabilistic), are evaluated with respect to their applicability for flood forecasting in mesoscale alpine catchments in Bavaria (Germany). The following models, operationally available and used at the Flood Forecasting Centre Kempten were included: GME, COSMO-EU, GFS, ALADIN-Austria, COSMO-LEPS. Rainfall forecasts are compared with ground-level observations using both continuous and categorical scores, applied to catchment-averaged rainfall for seven catchments. In summary, the median of the COSMO-LEPS ensemble forecast outperformed all deterministic forecasts and the COSMO-LEPS ensemble scored better than a Poor Man's Ensemble made from GME, GFS and COSMO-EU.

German
In dieser Studie werden operationell verfügbare, deterministische und Ensemble (probabilistische) Wettervorhersagemodelle auf ihre Anwendbarkeit in der Hochwasservorhersage mesoskaliger alpiner Einzugsgebiete in Bayern untersucht. Dies sind GME, COSMO-EU, GFS, ALADIN-Austria, COSMO-LEPS, die an der Hochwasservorhersagezentrale in Kempten operationell verfügbar und im Einsatz sind. Dazu werden Niederschlagsvorhersagen in Form mittlerer Gebietsniederschläge in sieben Einzugsgebieten mit bodengemessenen Stationsniederschlägen verglichen. Sowohl kategorische als auch kontinuierliche Gütemaße kommen zur Anwendung. In der Gesamtschau übertrifft der Median der COSMO-LEPS Ensemble Vorhersage alle deterministischen Vorhersagen, und das COSMO-LEPS Ensemble ein Poor Man's Ensemble aus GME, GFS und COSMO-EU.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2011/0169

Publication date: 2011-08-01

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  • Meteorologische Zeitschrift (originally founded in 1866) is the joint periodical of the meteorological societies of Austria, Germany and Switzerland. It accepts high-quality peer-reviewed manuscripts on all aspects of observational, theoretical and computational research out of the entire field of meteorology, including climatology. Meteorologische Zeitschrift represents a natural forum for the meteorological community of Central Europe and worldwide.
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