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Some factors in the design of a regional prediction model: an examination based upon two MAP events

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Consideration is given to the impact of both synoptic-scale flow features and different model configurations upon the performance of an Alpine-encompassing regional NWP model. The so-called regional LM forecast model is used to simulate two events selected from the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP), and simulations are undertaken with: different domain sizes (at 7 km resolution); lateral boundary data supplied from two data sets (the ECMWF's operational and MAP Reanalysis fields); and an embedded domain (at 2 km resolution). Quantitative evidence is provided showing (a) the specification of the incident and evolving synoptic-scale flow can exert a major impact upon the quality of the resulting simulations; (b) the simulation of the low-level meso- scale features of the flow is helped considerably by the refined MAP Reanalysis data set; and (c) the simulated meso- scale precipitation distribution displays some skill but, at least for one of the two cases, major deficiencies are not offset by the use of Reanalysis data.

Der Einfluss von synoptisch-skaligen Strömungsmerkmalen und unterschiedlichen Modellkonfigurationen auf die Güte eines regionalen numerischen Wettervorhersagemodells im Alpenraum wird untersucht. Das regionale Wettervorhersagemodell "Lokal-Modell" wird verwendet um zwei ausgewählte Fälle des "Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP)" zu simulieren. Es werden Simulationen durchgeführt mit: unterschiedlicher Gebietsgröße des Simulationsgebietes (für 7 km Auflösung); Randdaten, welche von zwei unterschiedlichen Datensätzen stammen (operationelle Analysen vom ECMWF und MAP Reanalyse Felder); und einem eingebetteten Simulationsgebiet für 2 km Auflösung. Es werden quantitative Anhaltspunkte dafür gegeben, dass (a) die Vorgabe der eintreffenden synoptisch-skaligen Strömung und deren zeitliche Entwicklung einen bedeutenden Einfluss auf die Qualität der resultierenden Simulationen ausübt, (b) der verfeinerte MAP Reanalyse-Datensatz die Simulation der bodennahen meso-α skaligen Strukturen verbessern kann und (c) die Simulation der meso-β skaligen Niederschlagsverteilung einige Vorhersagequalität hat, aber zumindest in einem Fall die hauptsächlichen Mängel durch die Verwendung der MAP-Reanalyse nicht beseitigt werden können.
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Document Type: Research Article

Publication date: 2007-06-01

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  • Meteorologische Zeitschrift (originally founded in 1866) is the joint periodical of the meteorological societies of Austria, Germany and Switzerland. It accepts high-quality peer-reviewed manuscripts on all aspects of observational, theoretical and computational research out of the entire field of meteorology, including climatology. Meteorologische Zeitschrift represents a natural forum for the meteorological community of Central Europe and worldwide.
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