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Phenological fluctuations as a possible signal of climatic changes in the Croatian mountain area

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Abstract:

The phenological phases of some perennial plants (forest and fruit trees) and wild herbaceous plants as well as the stages of field work operations have been analysed at the Gospić mountain station during the available periods (mainly 1962–2004). The Gospić meteorological station was established at the end of 1872 and has the longest time series of observations in the Croatian mountain area. The results of the linear trend analysis indicate a significant earlier cutting of winter crops (3 days/10 years) and flowering (2–6 days/10 years) for plants which bloom in the second half of April and in May. Progressive analyses showed the beginning of earlier flowering phenophases in the middle or late 1980s, and these trends became significant in the mid-1990s. These variations are the consequence of a significant increase in winter and spring insolation and extreme air temperatures and a decrease in the number of freezing days. A significant positive trend in mean annual air pressure and negative trends in annual precipitation amount and the number of days with precipitation over 10 mm indicate a progressive growth in the persistence of dry weather in the Croatian mountain area.

German
Die phänologischen Phasen von mehrjährigen Pflanzen (Wald- und Obstbäumen), Kräutern und Wildblumen, sowie die Stadien in der landwirtschaftlichen Bearbeitung wurden an der Bergstation Gospić hauptsächlich in der Zeitspanne von 1962 bis 2004 analysiert. Die Meteorologische Station Gospić wurde Ende 1872 gegründet und hat die längsten Beobachtungsreihen in der kroatischen Bergregion. Die Resultate der linearen Trendanalyse zeigen eine entschieden frühere Ernte bei Wintergetreide (3 Tage/10 Jahre) und Blühen (2 bis 6 Tage /10 Jahre) bei Pflanzen, die in der zweiten Aprilhälfte und im Mai blühen. Die weitergehenden Analysen verdeutlichen den Beginn der Verfrühung der Blüten-Phänophase in den mittleren oder späten achtziger Jahren, und dieser Trend wurde noch signifikanter in der Mitte der neunziger Jahre. Diese Variationen sind die Folge einer markanten Zunahme an Winter- und Frühlingsinsolation und extremer Lufttemperaturen sowie einer Abnahme an Frosttagen. Der signifikante positive Trend des jährlichen durchschnittlichen Luftdrucks und der negative Trend der jährlichen Niederschlagsmenge, sowie die Anzahl der Tage mit einem Niederschlag von mehr als 10 mm zeigen eine ständige Zunahme der Persistenz von trockenem Wetter in der kroatischen Bergregion.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0109

Publication date: April 1, 2006

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  • Meteorologische Zeitschrift (originally founded in 1866) is the joint periodical of the meteorological societies of Austria, Germany and Switzerland. It accepts high-quality peer-reviewed manuscripts on all aspects of observational, theoretical and computational research out of the entire field of meteorology, including climatology. Meteorologische Zeitschrift represents a natural forum for the meteorological community of Central Europe and worldwide.
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