Weather forecasts obtained with a Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique in a complex orography region

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Abstract:

The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique (KRISHNAMURTI et al., 2000a) is a new powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters. Several model outputs are combined, using weights calculated during a training period. Piedmont region is characterised by complex mountainous orography and direct model outputs, even from high-resolution limited area models, show many strong systematic and random errors in the forecast, compared to the values observed by our high-density non-GTS network. This is one of the first applications of this technique in a narrow mountain area and combines both global and limited-area models. Our results show a good improvement of meteorological parameter forecasts such as temperature, humidity, wind speed and precipitation.

German
Die Multimodel SuperEnsemble Technik (KRISHNAMURTI et al., 2000a) ist eine leistungsfähige Nachbearbeitungsmethode für die Schätzung der Wettervorhersageparameter. Mehrere Modellergebnisse werden kombiniert unter Benutzung der während einer Trainingsperiode berechneten Gewichte. Die Region Piemont wird durch komplizierte Gebirgsorographie gekennzeichnet und die direkten Modellergebnisse, sogar die von den hochauflösenden begrenzten Modellen, zeigen viele starke systematische und zufällige Störungen in der Prognose, verglichen mit den Werten, die durch unser sehr dichtes Nicht-GTS Netz beobachtet werden. Dieses ist eine der ersten Anwendungen dieser Technik in einem räumlich engen Gebirgsbereich und kombiniert globale und limited area Modelle. Unsere Resultate zeigen eine gute Verbesserung der meteorologischen Parameterprognosen wie Temperatur, Feuchtigkeit, Windgeschwindigkeit und Niederschlag.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2006/0108

Publication date: April 1, 2006

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  • Meteorologische Zeitschrift (originally founded in 1866) is the joint periodical of the meteorological societies of Austria, Germany and Switzerland. It accepts high-quality peer-reviewed manuscripts on all aspects of observational, theoretical and computational research out of the entire field of meteorology, including climatology. Meteorologische Zeitschrift represents a natural forum for the meteorological community of Central Europe and worldwide.
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