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Thermal conditions during the summer season at the German Baltic coast in the 20th and 21st century

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Abstract:

Time-series of monthly means of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature in the near-shore zone are analysed for the warm season (May to September) with respect to long-term variations during the 20 century. The corresponding number of bathing days and frequency of days with different thermal comfort stages, representative for the German Baltic coast are deduced from this analysis. The increase of temperatures and other properties is found to be relatively small, though there is a great year-to-year-variability. Especially, the general warming with the maximum in the 1940ies is distinct. Prognostic estimations based on of the Global Circulation Model (GCM) ECHAM4_OPYC and the IPCC-scenario IS92a (further increase of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere) indicate a dramatic warming in the investigated area in the 21 century. This development is proposed to affect tourism strongly.

German
Lange, für die deutsche Ostseeküste repräsentative Reihen der Monatsmittel der Lufttemperatur, der Wassertemperatur in der ufernahen Zone, der daraus abgeleiteten Zahl der Badetage und der Häufigkeit von Tagen mit verschiedenen thermischen Komfortstufen werden für die warme Jahreszeit (Mai–September) im Hinblick auf Langzeitveränderungen im 20. Jahrhundert analysiert. Der Anstieg der Temperaturen und der anderen Größen war bei starker Jahr-zu-Jahr-Variabilität relativ gering, insbesondere die Erwärmung mit dem Höhepunkt in den 1940er Jahren kommt deutlich zum Ausdruck. Prognostische AbscHätzungen auf der Grundlage des Globalen Zirkulationsmodells (GCM) ECHAM4 OPYC und des IPCC-Szenarios IS92a (weiterer Anstieg der Treibhausgaskonzentration in der AtmospHäre) deuten auf dramatische Erwärmungen im Untersuchungsgebiet im 21. Jahrhundert, was sich tiefgreifend auf den Tourismus auswirken kann.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0033

Publication date: April 1, 2005

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  • Meteorologische Zeitschrift (originally founded in 1866) is the joint periodical of the meteorological societies of Austria, Germany and Switzerland. It accepts high-quality peer-reviewed manuscripts on all aspects of observational, theoretical and computational research out of the entire field of meteorology, including climatology. Meteorologische Zeitschrift represents a natural forum for the meteorological community of Central Europe and worldwide.
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