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The hot summer 2003 in Germany. Some preliminary results of a statistical time series analysis

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Abstract:

A statistical analysis of the summer (June, July, and August) surface air temperature, time series 1761–2003, representative of Germany, is presented. Rank statistics, where the 2003 value (3.4 K above the 1961–1990 average) appears to be by far the maximum on record, are listed as well as trend values for the whole and defined subperiods including the contributions of the individual summer months. The warming detectable since approximately 1900/1920 shows a progressive structure with highest values in recent decades. The month of August contributes much more to this warming than the other summer months. A time-dependent probability analysis of the 2003 event reveals an increasing probability, especially in recent decades. However, even under these assumptions, the 2003 event is very extreme.

German
Eine statistische Analyse der Sommer-Reihe (Juni, Juli und August) der bodennahen Lufttemperatur 1761–2003, repräsentativ für das Flächenmittel Deutschland, wird vorgestellt. Rangstatistiken und Trendwerte für die gesamte Beobachtungszeit und einige Subintervalle, einschließlich der Beiträge der einzelnen Monate, werden aufgelistet, wobei der 2003-Wert (3,4 K über dem Mittel 1961–1990) bei weitem das bisher beobachtete Maximum ist. Die seit ungefähr 1900/1920 im Gang befindliche Erwärmung zeigt eine progressive Trendstruktur mit dem stärksten Anstieg in den letzten Dekaden. Dazu trägt der Monat August wesentlich mehr bei als die anderen Sommermonate. Eine zeitabhängige Wahrscheinlichkeitsanalyse des 2003-Ereignisses erbringt eine zunehmende Wahrscheinlichkeit, speziell in den letzten Dekaden; jedoch erscheint trotzdem dieses Ereignis als sehr extrem.

Document Type: Research Article

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2004/0013-0323

Publication date: 2004-07-01

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  • Meteorologische Zeitschrift (originally founded in 1866) is the joint periodical of the meteorological societies of Austria, Germany and Switzerland. It accepts high-quality peer-reviewed manuscripts on all aspects of observational, theoretical and computational research out of the entire field of meteorology, including climatology. Meteorologische Zeitschrift represents a natural forum for the meteorological community of Central Europe and worldwide.
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