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Evaluation of ECPC’s seasonal forecasts over the BALTEX region and Europe

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Since Sept. 26, 1997, the Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) has been making experimental, near real-time seasonal global forecasts with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global spectral model used for the reanalysis. Images of these forecasts, at seasonal time scales, and for regional areas, are provided on the world wide web, and digital experimental forecast products are made available to interested researchers. Are these forecasts useful for Europe? The purpose of this paper is to briefly describe the global forecast and analysis system, various biases and errors in the forecasts for BALTEX region and Europe, as well as the significant skill of seasonal forecasts. In particular, near-surface meteorological parameters, including temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and soil moisture are skillful at weekly to seasonal time scales over much of Europe. Still, there are many improvements that can be made and the purpose of this paper is to provide a baseline for further development of the global model as well as various regional models.

Seit dem 26. September 1997 werden am Scripps Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) in quasi-Realzeit globale saisonale Vorhersagen gemacht. Grundlage ist das auch fu¨r die Reanalysen verwendete globale Spektralmodell des National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Darstellungen dieser Vorhersagen fu¨r im mehrmonatigen Zeitbereich und fu¨r Regionen stehen auf dem World Wide Web zur Verfu¨gung. Interessierte Wissenschaftler ko¨nnen zudem digitale experimentelle Vorhersageprodukte bekommen. Sind diese Vorhersagen fu¨r Europa nu¨tzlich? Die Absicht dieser Publikation ist, das globale Vorhersage- und Analysesystem, sowie verschiedene Abweichungen und Fehler in den Vorhersage fu¨r die BALTEX-Region und Europa kurz zu beschreiben. Des Weiteren wird auf den Skill der saisonalen Vorhersagen eingegangen. Insbesondere besitzen u¨ber Europa meteorologische Parameter nahe dem Erdboden, wie Temperatur, Niederschlag, relative Feuchte, Wind Geschwindigkeit und Bodenfeuchte eine Vorhersagegu¨te auf wo¨chentlichen bis mehrmonatigen Zeitskalen. Dennoch gibt es Potential fu¨r viele Verbesserungen und die Absicht dieser Publikation ist auch, eine Grundlage fu¨r weitere Entwicklungen der globalen Modelle und verschiedener Regionalmodelle zu geben.


Document Type: Research Article


Publication date: 2001-07-01

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  • Meteorologische Zeitschrift (originally founded in 1866) is the joint periodical of the meteorological societies of Austria, Germany and Switzerland. It accepts high-quality peer-reviewed manuscripts on all aspects of observational, theoretical and computational research out of the entire field of meteorology, including climatology. Meteorologische Zeitschrift represents a natural forum for the meteorological community of Central Europe and worldwide.
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