Assessing the Salability of Timber Offerings

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Given the complex and expensive nature of timber sale planning, timber offerings that receive no bids waste valuable time and resources for the managers of national forests. This article compares several tools for predicting the salability of timber offerings. These tools include probability-based techniques and appraisal-based techniques. The probability-based techniques include probit regression and discriminant analysis. The appraisal-based techniques use various modifications of the standard transaction evidence appraisal equations to predict salability. Results show probability-based techniques do better at correctly classifying timber offerings as sold or unsold. They correctly classify nearly 100% of the sold offerings, which constitute most of the offerings in the sample. However, if the user's primary interest is to predict unsold offerings correctly, appraisal-based techniques outperform probability-based techniques. West. J. Appl. For. 13(4):129-136.

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Missoula, MT 59807, (406) 542-4166;, Fax: (406) 542-2663

Publication date: October 1, 1998

More about this publication?
  • Each regional journal of applied forestry focuses on research, practice, and techniques targeted to foresters and allied professionals in specific regions of the United States and Canada. The Western Journal of Applied Forestry covers the western United States, including Alaska, and western Canada; WJAF will also consider manuscripts reporting research in northern Mexico that has potential application in the southwestern United States.
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