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Forecasting Short-Term Timber Prices with Univariate ARIMA Models

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Abstract:

In this paper, we conduct timber price forecasts with univariate autoregressive-integrated-moving-average, or ARIMA, models employing the standard Box-Jenkins modeling strategy. Using quarterly price series from Timber Mart-South, we find that most of the selected pine pulpwood and sawtimber markets can be evaluated using ARIMA models, and that short-term forecasts, especially those of one-lead forecasts, are fairly accurate. We believe that forecasting future prices could aid timber producers and consumers alike in timing harvests, reducing uncertainty, and enhancing efficiency. South. J. Appl. For. 23(1):53-58.

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Warnell School of Forest Resources, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, (706) 542-4298;, Fax: (706) 542-8356

Publication date: 1999-02-01

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  • Each regional journal of applied forestry focuses on research, practice, and techniques targeted to foresters and allied professionals in specific regions of the United States and Canada. The Southern Journal of Applied Forestry covers an area from Virginia and Kentucky south to as far west as Oklahoma and east Texas.
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