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Future Timber Demand, an Alternative Model

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A projection of future timber demand was developed from historical data on per capita consumption and population and compared with the projection from the USDA Forest Service's "The South's Fourth Forest: Alternatives for the Future." The accumulated discrepancy between these methodologies amounts to 71 billion cubic feet over the period 1986-2030. Reason suggests that both rising real prices and changing consumer preferences are forcing per capita consumption of industrial wood down and that population projections may be substantially less than those used due to social changes that have drawn women into the work force. In the presence of a highly inelastic stumpage demand and supply, even a small decrease in projected consumption would bring about a disproportionate fall in prices. Hence, the dire consequences resulting from rapidly rising future stumpage prices in the South may not materialize. South. J. Appl. For. 14(4):177-183.
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Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: School of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332-0205

Publication date: 1990-11-01

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    Each regional journal of applied forestry focuses on research, practice, and techniques targeted to foresters and allied professionals in specific regions of the United States and Canada. The Southern Journal of Applied Forestry covers an area from Virginia and Kentucky south to as far west as Oklahoma and east Texas.
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