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Partial Calibration of "ONTWIGS": A Forest Growth and Yield Projection System Adapted for Ontario

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"ONTWIGS" (an adaptation of "LSTWIGS" for Ontario), was partially calibrated for permanent plots data sets from northern Ontario. Stand attributes used for calibration were quadratic mean diameter, number of trees, and basal area/ha. Simple local calibration was accomplished by adjusting tree survival and potential diameter growth coefficients so as to reduce the prediction errors to within 10% of the actual values over a 5-yr period. This resulted in prediction errors ranging from -9.9 to 6.9%, but with an overall average of only: -1.4, 1.0, and 0.2% for the spruce fir data; from -8.5 to 2.8%, but with an overall average of only -0.7, 0.5, and 0.4% for a black spruce drainage and fertilization experiment; and from -6.6 to 9.8%, but with an overall average of only -1.7, 0.0, and -1.8% for an unthinned red pine plantation for number of trees/ha, quadratic mean diameter, and basal area/ha, respectively. Results indicate that "ONTWIGS" may be locally calibrated through simple procedures to increase its prediction accuracy to ±5% of the observed stand attributes, averaging less than 3% for the major timber species in northern Ontario and for short to medium projection periods. However, the uncalibrated model should be used with caution for short terms, only and where no other projection tools are available. More extensive calibrations of "ONTWIGS" on larger and more representative data sets are currently underway. North. J. Appl. For. 11(2):41-46.
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Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Natural Resources Canada, Ontario Region, Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario P6A 5M7

Publication date: 1994-06-01

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    Each regional journal of applied forestry focuses on research, practice, and techniques targeted to foresters and allied professionals in specific regions of the United States and Canada. The Northern Journal of Applied Forestry covers northeastern, midwestern, and boreal forests in the United States and Canada.
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