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Statistical Appraisal of Timber with an Application to the Chequamegon National Forest

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Abstract:

A statistical method of appraising timber is presented. It consists of predicting the high bid of a particular timber offering under competitive conditions and adjusting this value to reflect uncertainty and the goals of the selling agency. Using data from the Chequamegon National Forest in northern Wisconsin, it was found that a simple linear model using 14 variables explained 93% of the variance in high bid for competitive sales from 1976 to 1980. This model predicted well post-sample high bids for 1981 and 1982. Based on this model, three possible definitions of appraised value were investigated: (1) predicted high bid, (2) predicted high bid minus one standard error, and (3) predicted high bid minus two standard errors. The consequences of each definition on timber sales, had it been applied in 1981 and 1982, were examined. Definitions (1) and (2) would have increased receipts by 28 and 5%, while decreasing the volume sold by only 5 and 3.6 %, respectively. Definition (3) would have led to the sale of approximately the same volume, but a decrease in receipts of 26%. North. J. Appl. For. 1:72-76, Dec. 1984.

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Department of Forestry, The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37916

Publication date: 1984-12-01

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  • Each regional journal of applied forestry focuses on research, practice, and techniques targeted to foresters and allied professionals in specific regions of the United States and Canada. The Northern Journal of Applied Forestry covers northeastern, midwestern, and boreal forests in the United States and Canada.
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