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Economic Analysis of A Tree Improvement Program for Western Larch

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An individual-tree simulation model called Prognosis and an economic subroutine called CHEAPO were used to determine financial rotation ages (in this analysis defined as the age at which net present value is maximized) for stands grown with genetically improved and unimproved western larch (Larix occidentalis) in north Idaho. Three hypothetical but reasonable growth functions were tested on two site classes. Sensitivity analyses showed that the tree improvement investment was likely to be profitable at 4 and 5 percent discount rates on excellent sites and at 4 percent on good sites. The analysis was most sensitive to changes in discount rate, site quality, and cone production rate. It was moderately sensitive to variation in time to seed production, number of productive orchard years, and differences among the assumed biological functions. As the hypothetical growth functions were designed to be conservative, economic gains are likely to be larger than those indicated in the analysis.
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Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Associate Professor of Forest Resources in the Same School

Publication date: 01 November 1984

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