Sequential Decisions in Timber Management--A Christmas Tree Case Study
Authors: Bentley, William R.; Kaiser, H. Frederick
Source: Journal of Forestry, Volume 65, Number 10, 1 October 1967 , pp. 714-719(6)
Publisher: Society of American Foresters
Abstract:A timber management decision made at one point of time may affect the possible alternatives in a later decision. Also, chance events, such as mortality, are significant in such decision sequences because the probabilities of occurrence are conditioned by managerial choices. The relationship over time of production decisions, chance events and value outcomes may be represented as a decision tree. The decision-tree approach has applications to practical timber management problems. A case study of Christmas tree production in Iowa illustrates the use of this technique for ranking alternative investment paths. The practical technique integrates technical information, economic analysis, expert opinion, and managerial judgment. Through sensitivity analysis, it is possible to determine the importance of key decision factors, such as expected price and growth rate, in selection of the optimum.
Document Type: Journal Article
Affiliations: Michigan State University, East Lansing
Publication date: 1967-10-01
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