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The Law of One Price in the North American Softwood Lumber Markets

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The existence of the Law of One Price (LOP) in the North American (10 regional) markets for aggregate softwood lumber and homogeneous softwood lumber products is tested using the Johansen co-integration test and monthly price data for the Softwood Lumber Agreement (SLA) (1996–2001) period and the post-SLA (2001–2004) period. For the aggregate softwood lumber market, the LOP exists neither in the North American aggregate market nor in any combination of one regional market of Canada and all the five regional markets of the United States, nor in one regional market of the United States and all five regional markets of Canada; however, some of the regional markets are co-integrated. The regional markets of homogeneous softwood products in the two countries are co-integrated during both the SLA and post-SLA period. Further studies are essential to understand the difference between the aggregated and homogeneous softwood products market co-integration and to develop a comprehensive and comparative perspective of the Canadian and the US softwood lumber markets.

Keywords: Co-integration; Johansen multivariate co-integration test; market integration; softwood lumber; the Law of One Price; trade dispute

Document Type: Research Article

Affiliations: Shashi Kant, Faculty of Forestry, University of Toronto, 33 Willcocks Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3B3, Canada—Phone: (416) 978-6196; shashi.kant@utoronto.ca., Fax: (416) 978-3834

Publication date: August 1, 2006

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  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
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