Estimating the Cost of Land Base Changes Due to Wildfire Using Shadow Prices

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Abstract:



Linear-programming-based timber harvest scheduling models produce shadow prices of constraints as a standard output. We present a method whereby the shadow prices of starting inventory constraints can be used to approximate the costs of land base changes, expressed in terms of the units of measure for the objective function in the timber supply model. We use this method to approximate the cost of forest fires, and compare these costs to a measure of the true cost. The approximation worked remarkably well over a large range of fire sizes, and alternative model formulations, for a study area in northeastern Alberta, Canada. FOR. SCI. 49(5):719–730.

Keywords: Timber harvest scheduling; boreal mixedwood forest; environmental management; forest; forest fire; forest management; forest resources; forestry; forestry research; forestry science; linear programming; natural resource management; natural resources; optimization; simulation; wildfire

Document Type: Miscellaneous

Affiliations: 1: Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2H1, Phone: 780-492-8221; Fax:780-492-4323 glen.w.armstrong@ualberta.ca 2: Boreal Ecosystems Research Ltd., 6915–106 Street NW, Edmonton, AB, T6H 2W1, stevec@berl.ab.ca

Publication date: October 1, 2003

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