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Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Predicting the Probability of Obtaining Variable Shortleaf Pine Regeneration Densities

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Abstract:



A logistic equation is the basis for a model that predicts the probability of obtaining regeneration at specified densities. The density of regeneration (trees/ha) for which an estimate of probability is desired can be specified by means of independent variables in the model. When estimating parameters, the dependent variable is set to 1 if the regeneration density (trees/ha) on the plot is greater than the specified density (trees/ha), otherwise 0. Since it is desired to estimate parameters for a range of probability densities, traditional estimation techniques for logistic models cannot be used. Multiple regeneration densities require a multinomial distribution, for which maximum likelihood estimates are obtained. Counts of shortleaf pine regeneration taken 9-10 years after thinning on 182 plots established in naturally occurring shortleaf pine forests are used to estimate parameters. FOR. SCI. 49(4):577–584.

Keywords: Natural regeneration; Pinus echinata; environmental management; forest; forest management; forest resources; forestry; forestry research; forestry science; logistic regresson; natural resource management; natural resources

Document Type: Miscellaneous

Affiliations: 1: Professor Department of Forestry, Oklahoma State University, Room 008C Ag Hall, Stillwater, OK, 74078, Phone: 405-744-5447; Fax: 405-744-3530 tlynch@okstate.edu 2: (Former) OSU Graduate Research Assistant—Phone: 617-405-3625 nkouka@hotmail.com 3: Natural Resource Economist Boise Corp., P.O. Box 50 Boise, ID, 3728-0001, Phone: 208-384-7212 MikeHuebschmann@bc.com 4: Project Leader/Research Forest Ecologist Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, P.O. Box 1270 Hot Springs, AR, 71902, Phone: 501-623-1174 jguldin@fs.fed.us

Publication date: August 1, 2003

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