Skip to main content

Assessing Uncertainty in a Stand Growth Model by Bayesian Synthesis

Buy Article:

$29.50 plus tax (Refund Policy)


The Bayesian synthesis method (BSYN) was used to bound the uncertainty in projections calculated with PIPESTEM, a mechanistic model of forest growth. The application furnished posterior distributions of (a) the values of the model's parameters, and (b) the values of three of the model's output variables--basal area per unit land area, average tree height, and tree density--at different points in time. Confidence or credible intervals for the output variables were obtained directly from the posterior distributions. The application also provided estimates of correlation among the parameters and output variables. BSYN, which originally was applied to a population dynamics model for bowhead whales (Raftery et al. 1996, JASA 90:402-442), is generally applicable to deterministic models. Extension to two or more linked models is discussed. A simple worked example is included in an appendix. For. Sci. 45(4):528-538.

Keywords: Loblolly pine; confidence intervals; mechanistic models; posterior distributions

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Professor, Department of Statistics, Rutgers University, 110 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854

Publication date: November 1, 1999

More about this publication?
  • Membership Information
  • ingentaconnect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites

Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
Cookie Policy
ingentaconnect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more