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Stochastic Representation of Fire Behavior in a Wildland Fire Protection Planning Model for California

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Abstract:

A fire behavior module was developed for the California Fire Economics Simulator version 2 (CFES2), a stochastic simulation model of initial attack on wildland fire used by the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Fire rate of spread (ROS) and fire dispatch level (FDL) for simulated fires "occurring" on the same day are determined by making coordinated draws from compound distributions characterizing 2 PM fire behavior indices such as ROS, then adjusting these draws using diurnal adjustment coefficients derived from hourly fire weather observations. Statistical examination of historical fire occurrence and predicted behavior data validated CFES2's use of independent fire occurrence and fire behavior modeling processes. For. Sci. 45(4):492-499.

Keywords: CFES2; burning index; fire; fire rate of spread; initial attack

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Michigan State University, Department of Forestry, 126 Natural Resources, East Lansing, MI 48824--Phone: (517) 432-3352;, Fax: (517) 432-1143

Publication date: November 1, 1999

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
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