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Estimating Economic Gains for Landowners Due to Time-Dependent Changes in Biotechnology

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This paper presents a model for examining the economic value of biotechnological research given time-dependent changes in biotechnology. Previous papers examined this issue assuming a time-neutral change in biotechnology. However, when analyzing the genetic improvements of increasing a tree's resistance to a pathogen, this assumption is untenable. We derive analytical expressions for the optimal rotation age given non-constant changes in biotechnology. Our model is then implemented using (1) growth and yield simulations, (2) optimal rotation calculations, and (3) survey data on genetic resistance of slash pine (Pinus elliottii) to fusiform rust. Non-parametric regression models are used to estimate the economic gain functions which, for the cases considered, averaged about 1% of forestland value per year. For. Sci. 45(2):163-170.

Keywords: Research benefits; bootstrap; economic optimal rotation age; fusiform rust; locally weighted regression (LOESS)

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Research Forester, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, P.O. Box 12254, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709

Publication date: 1999-05-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2015 Impact Factor: 1.702
    Ranking: 16 of 66 in forestry

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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