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Modeling Rubber Tree Root Disease Epidemics with a Markov Spatial Process

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Root diseases of the rubber tree (Hevea Brasiliensis) due to Rigidoporus lignosus (Klotzsch) Imaz. and Phellinus noxius (Corner) G.H. Cunn spread along planting lines and cause serious damage. Various control methods exist. A mathematical model was developed which allows the influence of their various parameters on the dynamics of an epidemic to be evaluated. The health status of the trees on a planting line was considered as a Markov process. The model parameters were given a biological interpretation and estimated using the results of an epidemiological survey carried out in Côte d'Ivoire from 1977 to 1984. Hypotheses of influence of dead trees before the survey, stationarity of secondary infection, and development of initial infection were tested. By simulation of the main model, the parameters were linked to percentages of infected trees on each inspection and of healthy trees at the end of the epidemic, thereby allowing the effects of the control methods to be evaluated according to their nature, efficiency, and mode of application. FOR. SCI. 39(1):41-54.

Keywords: Gibbs; Hevea brasiliensis; Phellinus noxius; Rigidoporus lignosus; epidemiology; mathematical model; pathogen spread; spatio-temporal

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Laboratoire de Phytopathologie Tropicale, ORSTOM, 911 avenue Agropolis, BP5045, 34032 Montpellier, France

Publication date: February 1, 1993

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2015 Impact Factor: 1.702
    Ranking: 16 of 66 in forestry

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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