Skip to main content

Evaluating the Stability of Softwood Lumber Demand Elasticity by End-Use Sector: A Stochastic Parameter Approach

Buy Article:

$29.50 plus tax (Refund Policy)


Estimates of the elasticity of demand for softwood lumber are obtained from a production theoretic model disaggregated by major end-using sector. Model parameters are treated as stochastic and estimated using the Kalman filter algorithm. The analysis supports Spelter's (1985) earlier findings of a highly inelastic aggregate U.S. demand for softwood lumber and that this elasticity has declined over the period since 1950. The extent of the decline was found to be only some 25%, however, and to have occurred in a relatively uniform fashion. Lumber demand elasticities in specific end-use sectors varied widely. Significant declining elasticity trends were found only in residential upkeep and alteration and materials handling. These trends arise from both a declining share of lumber in the costs of wood-based inputs and declining elasticities of demand for the wood-based inputs themselves. At the aggregate level, the significant declining trend in elasticity derives both from changing consumption shares across end uses and from the combined movements of the component elasticity series. For Sci. 38(4):825-841.

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Economic Research Service/U.S.D.A., 1301 New York Avenue, Washington, DC 20001

Publication date: 1992-11-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2015 Impact Factor: 1.702
    Ranking: 16 of 66 in forestry

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
  • Submit a Paper
  • Membership Information
  • Author Guidelines
  • Podcasts
  • Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites
  • Access Key
  • Free content
  • Partial Free content
  • New content
  • Open access content
  • Partial Open access content
  • Subscribed content
  • Partial Subscribed content
  • Free trial content
Cookie Policy
Cookie Policy
Ingenta Connect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more