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The Incorporation of Risk in Optimal Selection Age Determination

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Abstract:

This paper explores the effect of decision-making criteria on optimal selection age determination in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) tree breeding program. Three different selection ages, 2, 4, and 6 years, are compared using biological, economic, and risk-adjusted simulation methods. The 4-year selection option is found to be superior to the other options by virtually all criteria used in this analysis. This choice of 4 years is also quite robust regarding the assumptions used in the analysis such as prices, costs, gain estimates, and breeding strategy. For. Sci. 37(5):1350-1364.

Keywords: Tree breeding; genetic gain predictions; juvenile-mature correlations; risk analysis; selection age

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Research Geneticist, Weyerhaeuser Co.

Publication date: November 1, 1991

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