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The Incorporation of Risk in Optimal Selection Age Determination

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This paper explores the effect of decision-making criteria on optimal selection age determination in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) tree breeding program. Three different selection ages, 2, 4, and 6 years, are compared using biological, economic, and risk-adjusted simulation methods. The 4-year selection option is found to be superior to the other options by virtually all criteria used in this analysis. This choice of 4 years is also quite robust regarding the assumptions used in the analysis such as prices, costs, gain estimates, and breeding strategy. For. Sci. 37(5):1350-1364.

Keywords: Tree breeding; genetic gain predictions; juvenile-mature correlations; risk analysis; selection age

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Research Geneticist, Weyerhaeuser Co.

Publication date: 1991-11-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2015 Impact Factor: 1.702
    Ranking: 16 of 66 in forestry

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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