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Efficiency of Early Selections for Stem Volume and Predictions of Size Distributions of Selections in a Red Pine Spacing Trial

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Simulated phenotypic selections for superior stem volume at age 34 were carried out in a red pine spacing trial between age 10 and age 34. The efficiency of selections increased exponentially with selection age and with diminishing initial spacing. Interactions between spacing, age, and the intensity of selection modified the overall efficiency of early selections. The probability that a tree would remain in a given relative size class during a 2-or 4-year-period increased with age when the initial spacing was less than 2.1 m. Wider spacings induced a decline in these probabilities. Realistic predictions of future size class distributions of trees selected for superior size at age 10 were generated from a maximum of 4 years growth information with the help of Markov chains (transition probability matrices). Age 34 standardized means of early selections could be estimated within 2% from a quadratic response surface with age, spacing, and selection intensity (%-select) as independent variables. For breeding purposes, selections at age 10 appeared more attractive than later selections. Predictions of age 10 to age 34 years correlations of stem volume based on these Markov chains produced realistic results for plantations planted at a 3.0 m square spacing and closer. For. Sci. 37(2):593-612.
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Keywords: Markov-chain; competition; selection age

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Research Scientist, Petawawa National Forestry Institute, Chalk River, Ontario, K0J 1J0, Canada

Publication date: 1991-06-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2016 Impact Factor: 1.782 (Rank 17/64 in forestry)

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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