Feedback Thinning Policies for Uneven-Aged Stand Management with Stochastic Prices
Abstract:This paper presents an optimization model and a numerical method for determining feedback thinning rules for uneven-aged stand management when the stumpage price forecast is a stochastic process. Periodic thinning takes place over a finite time horizon, and the objective is to maximize expected present value. The thinning rules are based on a continuous function that maps the relationship between harvest intensity and observed stand value. The parameters of the function include its slope, location, and shape. The location parameter is defined as the stand reservation value, which is the minimum stand value required for harvest. Optimal parameter values are determined using stochastic simulation. Numerical results are presented using a stage-structured model for uneven-aged stands of California white fir (Abies concolor [Gord. & Glend.] Lindl. (Iowiana [Gord.])). Stumpage price is the sum of a deterministic constant and a normally distributed random error. With these assumptions, optimal feedback thinning policies have significantly higher expected present values than do thinning policies that ignore price fluctuations. However, feedback policies have greater volatility in harvest revenue over time. Sensitivity analysis shows that the expected present value of optimal feedback management increases as the level of price risk increases. For. Sci. 36(4):1015-1031.
Document Type: Journal Article
Affiliations: Research Forester, USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Box 12254, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709
Publication date: 1990-12-01
More about this publication?
- Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.
2015 Impact Factor: 1.702
Ranking: 16 of 66 in forestry
Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017
Also published by SAF:
Journal of Forestry
Other SAF Publications
- Submit a Paper
- Membership Information
- Author Guidelines
- Ingenta Connect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites