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U.S. Trade in Transition--An Econometric View of South Sea Wood Flows

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There were distinct stages of growth and development in the 1960s and 1970s in the flow of South Sea tropical hardwood as it made its way from the forests of Indonesia, East Malaysia, and the Philippines to the transit plywood-manufacturing plants of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, and thence to U.S. markets. In the introductory stage, the dominant end-use was flush-doors, the dominant manufacturer was Japan, and the dominant provider of logs was the Philippines. The expansionary phase started in the early 1960s and was characterized by a dramatic rise in South Korean and Taiwanese plywood exports which found distinct niches in the U.S. market. By its end, in the early 1970s, these countries supplied, respectively, 60% and 30% of U.S. demand. A quasi-spatial econometric model was used to investigate plywood and log flows over the 1962-1979 period. The consequences of SEALPA log export restrictions that started around 1980 were analyzed using estimated reduced-form relationships and a gap-type model. Future U.S. imports of South Sea plywood are expected to be around 60% of the peak level reached in the early 1970s, with more than 80% of them coming from Indonesia. For. Sci. 36(2):425-437.
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Keywords: Hardwood plywood; Japan; Korea; Taiwan

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Professor of Forest Economics, Department of Forestry and Resource Management, University of California, Berkeley 94720

Publication date: 1990-06-01

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    Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
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