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An Appraisal of the IIASA Model of the Global Forest Sector: Advances, Shortcomings, and Implications for Future Research

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The IIASA Global Forest Sector Trade Model is placed in the broader context of other forest sector models. Based on theoretical considerations and sensitivity analysis of the model, its strengths and weaknesses are discussed. The model provides a versatile and sophisticated system for analyzing forest sector policies, and incorporates many critical interregional and interproduct linkages that lie outside the sphere of previous modeling work. However, the model is a first-generation effort and requires further development to realize its potential as an analytical system. While the general structure of the model is well suited for policy analysis, individual sectors need to be designed with more careful attention to how their specification affects the overall simulation properties of the model. Extant data bases are not used optimally: data are used too intensively in some areas, while there are opportunities for expanded data use in others. Due to the complexity of the model and need for additional development, a substantial resource commitment must be made to understand, modify, and use it effectively. For those who make the investment, the Global Forest Sector Trade Model should prove useful for forest policy and forest industry research. For. Sci. 36(2):343-357.

Keywords: International trade; forest sector models; spatial equilibrium models

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Professor, CINTRAFOR, College of Forest Resources, AR-10, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195

Publication date: June 1, 1990

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