A Signal Detection Framework to Evaluate Models of Tree Mortality Following Fire Damage
Abstract:Signal detection theory provides an appropriate framework to evaluate the performance of various individual tree mortality models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves show the tradeoffs that are possible by varying the decision criteria, show predictive performance with respect to chance, and show the difference between various models. Two ROC curves were generated to predict ponderosa pine mortality following fall prescribed fires in northern Idaho. One ROC curve was developed from rules of thumb using percent crown scorch. A second ROC curve was developed from a logistic mortality model using diameter at breast height and scorch height. Overall, percent crown scorch is a better predictor of mortality than scorch height, and thus should be used to plan and conduct salvage operations in ponderosa pine following a fire. Because of the difficulties involved in predicting percent crown scorch before a fire, the logistic model based on scorch height can be used to plan understory prescribed fires. For. Sci. 36(1):66-76.
Document Type: Journal Article
Affiliations: Associate Dean of Research, College of Forestry, Wildlife, and Range Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83843
Publication date: 1990-03-01
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