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A Model of National Forest Timber Supply and Stumpage Markets in the Western United States

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This paper presents an aggregate regional model of the National Forest timber supply process and the interaction of National Forest and non-National Forest supply in the determination of regional stumpage prices and harvest volumes. Endogenous elements of National Forest supply include establishment of the appraised price, bid price, volumes sold and unsold, the uncut volume under contract, volumes harvested, and harvest price. Components of the model describe the distribution of volumes sold and harvested by bid price and contract duration classes. Estimation results for bid price relations in several western regions indicate that prices bid for stumpage depend on a short (one-year) distributed lag in product prices and production costs. Application of the full model in the Douglas-fir region suggests that short-term National Forest supply may be more elastic with respect to harvest price than industrial private supply. Model simulations track actual behavior in the Douglas-fir region stumpage market with reasonable accuracy over the period of extreme price and volume movements during 1977-1985. Model projections also appear reasonable and internally consistent in a projection to the year 2000 under a less volatile product market scenario. For. Sci. 35(2):401-424.

Keywords: Market model; bidding; econometrics; forecasting; timber supply

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Principal Economist and Project Leader, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, P. O. Box 3890, Porland, Oregon 97208

Publication date: 1989-06-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2015 Impact Factor: 1.702
    Ranking: 16 of 66 in forestry

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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