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Predicted and Actual Capacity Changes in the Pulp and Paper Industries of Developed Market Economies: A Test of Rational Expectations

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A comparison was done of expected and actual changes of production capacity in the pulp and paper industries of 14 major producing countries. Tests were done to determine whether the predictions used all available information in an optimal manner (full rationality). The results showed that this was not the case for 29 to 86% of the countries, depending on the length of the forecast and commodity group. Another set of tests was then done to determine if whatever information used by forecasters was used efficiently (partial rationality). Unbiasedness, a necessary condition of partial rationality, was rejected for 29 to 79% of the countries considered, depending on forecast length and commodity group. Aggregation of countries into regions did not eliminate the bias. The general tendency was for forecasters to overestimate increases in capacity. For. Sci. 34(3):606-620.
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Keywords: Forecasting; econometrics; international; paperboard; production

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Research Assistant, Department of Forestry, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Publication date: 1988-09-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2016 Impact Factor: 1.782 (Rank 17/64 in forestry)

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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