PAPYRUS: A Model of the North American Pulp and Paper Industry

Authors: Gilless, J. Keith; Buongiorno, Joseph

Source: Forest Science, Monograph 28 (Supplement to Number 1, 1 March 1987) , pp. a0001-z0002(2)

Publisher: Society of American Foresters

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Abstract:

A spatial equilibrium model of the North American pulp and paper industry was developed to provide long-range projections of production, consumption, imports, exports, equilibrium prices, and fiber inputs. The model consists of a price-endogenous linear program that describes the industry in one year, and a set of recursive relationships that update this linear program from year to year to reflect endogenous and exogenous changes. The linear program incorporates supply curves for raw materials, an activity analysis representation of manufacturing and transport activities, and demand curves for final products and exports. The optimal solution to the linear program is the competitive equilibrium for the industry in a given year. Fourteen commodities are recognized in the model: softwood and hardwood roundwood and residues, mechanical, semichemical, and chemical pulp, newsprint, paper, and paperboard, and four recycled commodities. The United States and Canada are divided into 11 supply and 9 demand regions; the rest of the world consists of 3 net demand regions. A baseline simulation is presented that covers the period from 1980 to 2000. The results of alternative simulations, in which key assumptions of the baseline simulation are altered, are also presented.

Keywords: Supply; demand; forecasting; policy; pulpwood; trade; paperboard

Document Type: Journal article

Affiliations: 1: Professor in the Department of Forestry, College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison

Publication date: 1987-03-01

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