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PAPYRUS: A Model of the North American Pulp and Paper Industry

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A spatial equilibrium model of the North American pulp and paper industry was developed to provide long-range projections of production, consumption, imports, exports, equilibrium prices, and fiber inputs. The model consists of a price-endogenous linear program that describes the industry in one year, and a set of recursive relationships that update this linear program from year to year to reflect endogenous and exogenous changes. The linear program incorporates supply curves for raw materials, an activity analysis representation of manufacturing and transport activities, and demand curves for final products and exports. The optimal solution to the linear program is the competitive equilibrium for the industry in a given year. Fourteen commodities are recognized in the model: softwood and hardwood roundwood and residues, mechanical, semichemical, and chemical pulp, newsprint, paper, and paperboard, and four recycled commodities. The United States and Canada are divided into 11 supply and 9 demand regions; the rest of the world consists of 3 net demand regions. A baseline simulation is presented that covers the period from 1980 to 2000. The results of alternative simulations, in which key assumptions of the baseline simulation are altered, are also presented.

Keywords: Supply; demand; forecasting; paperboard; policy; pulpwood; trade

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Professor in the Department of Forestry, College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Madison

Publication date: March 1, 1987

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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