An Approach for Predicting Snow Damage to Ponderosa Pine Plantations
Abstract:Snow damage to ponderosa pine plantations is common at many locations in the mountains of central Idaho. A procedure was developed using discriminant analysis techniques to predict snow damage hazards. Two approaches were used: one based on computed values of 20-year average annual maximum snow pressures; and the other based on elevation and the average slope gradient on the sample plantations. Snow pressures were computed from plantation site properties including elevation, slope gradient, aspect, and a classification of surface roughness. Prediction success was best with the snow pressure approach and amounted to 74% for damaged plantations and 91% for undamaged plantations for an overall prediction success of 82%. A sensitivity analysis of the snow pressure equations showed that snow depth was the most important variable influencing snow pressure. Evaluations of annual variability in maximum snow pressures suggest that the 20-year average is a reasonable figure for prediction purposes. Ponderosa pine in the study area has a window of vulnerability of about 13 years. The probability of trees surviving this period without damage in high hazard snow pressure sites is very small. An evaluation of the potential benefits of predicting snow pressure damage along with suggestions for use of the procedures are provided. For. Sci. 33(2):485-503.
Document Type: Journal Article
Affiliations: Research Forester, Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Ogden, UT 84401
Publication date: 1987-06-01
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