A Multiattribute Utility Model for Incorporating Risk in Fire Management Planning

$29.50 plus tax (Refund Policy)

Buy Article:


The potential variability of investment returns often perplexes the investment selection process. On national forests, the relative efficiency of alternative fire management strategies is investigated using a modification of traditional cost plus loss methods. Current procedures do not indicate potential variability in the performance of these alternatives, however. A multiattribute utility model is presented as the appropriate framework for evaluating alternatives when decision-makers are concerned with the risk and efficiency implications of selecting a particular strategy. Among fire management planners, the term risk usually relates a perception of the variability of potential damages. A risk measure is defined and an index is created to indicate the performance of each fire management strategy relative to the potential performance of a standard established as a benchmark. Utility functions for the risk attribute were assessed using hypothetical lotteries where the value (utility) of risk was a function of its deviation from a risk benchmark. Two-attribute utility functions indicated surveyed respondents' preferences for attaining risk and efficiency related objectives. Analysis yielded two conclusions: (1) that fire management planners are not risk-averse, and (2) including risk as an attribute of the decision problem can significantly influence investment selection. Forest Sci. 32:1032-1048.

Keywords: Decision analysis; economics; risk/return

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Professor, Department of Forest and Wood Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523

Publication date: December 1, 1986

More about this publication?
  • Membership Information
  • ingentaconnect is not responsible for the content or availability of external websites
Related content



Share Content

Access Key

Free Content
Free content
New Content
New content
Open Access Content
Open access content
Subscribed Content
Subscribed content
Free Trial Content
Free trial content
Cookie Policy
Cookie Policy
ingentaconnect website makes use of cookies so as to keep track of data that you have filled in. I am Happy with this Find out more