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The Role of Exchange Rates in Canadian--United States Lumber Trade

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The paper employs graphical analysis, simple statics and an econometric model to examine the impacts of exchange rate on consumption, production, prices, and bilateral trade flows in the Canadian-U.S. lumber market. Based on annual data for the 1950-1983 period, the econometric model is comprised of a U.S. demand relation and supply, capacity, and stumpage price relations for three U.S. regions and Canada. Analysis with the model indicates short-term elasticities with respect to exchange rate (expressed as $C/$US) of less than 0.1 for U.S. consumption, roughly -0.3 for U.S. delivered price and 0.5 for import volume. The elasticity of Canadian market share was found to be approximately 0.4. The greatest Canadian market share expansion (from roughly 20 to 27%) and rise in the U.S. dollar strength occurred during the years 1975-1979. A hypothetical simulation of this period, under the assumption of no increase in the nominal exchange rate, yielded a reduction in Canada's 1979 share to 24%, roughly a 40% reduction in market share gain. Both elasticity and simulation results indicate that exchange rate has been an important, but by no means the sole, factor in recent expansion of Canada's share in U.S. lumber markets. Forest Sci. 32:973-988.
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Keywords: Econometrics; market share; statics

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Graduate Student, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

Publication date: 1986-12-01

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    Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2016 Impact Factor: 1.782 (Rank 17/64 in forestry)

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
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