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A Risk Analysis Approach for Using Discriminant Functions to Manage Logging-Related Landslides on Granitic Terrain

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A linear discriminant function, developed to predict debris avalanches after clearcut logging on a granitic batholith in northwestern California, was tested on data from two batholiths. The equation was inaccurate in predicting slope stability on one of them. A new equation based on slope, crown cover, and distance from a stream (retained from the original equation) predicted stability on all three batholiths with an overall accuracy of 83 percent. A procedure is described that can be used to decide how to harvest slide-prone slopes. The procedure uses the manager's estimates of contending resource values and environmental risks together with data from a proposed harvest area. By the algorithm presented, the manager can determine the landslide risk threshold to follow and achieve the greatest net benefit from a timber harvest. Forest Sci. 31:772-784.

Keywords: Debris avalanches; Klamath Mountains; clearcutting; risk analysis

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Geologist, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Arcata, CA 95521

Publication date: September 1, 1985

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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