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Public Policy and Long-term Timber Supply in the South

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Simulation models are used to describe the short- and long-term components of private timber supply behavior. An inventory model in which forest management by private owners is responsive to a policy variable is linked to a model of softwood lumber and plywood markets. The policy of providing payments to share the cost of softwood reforestation on non-industrial private forest land is examined. Projections with these models indicate that as a result of low levels of pine regeneration in the South softwood stumpage prices will rise faster than previously expected to the year 2000. Forest industry will provide a greater share of the southern softwood timber harvest in the future. Public benefits of cost-share programs, measured by discounted changes in producer and consumer surplus, are shown to exceed program costs. Substantial increases in cost-share payments for reforestation can reverse the projected decline in nonindustrial softwood inventory and harvest, but will have little effect before the year 2010. Forest Sci. 31:342-357.

Keywords: Timber supply projections; cost-share programs; nonindustrial forests

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, PO Box 3890, Portland, OR 97208

Publication date: 1985-06-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2015 Impact Factor: 1.702
    Ranking: 16 of 66 in forestry

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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