Public Policy and Long-term Timber Supply in the South
Simulation models are used to describe the short- and long-term components of private timber supply behavior. An inventory model in which forest management by private owners is responsive to a policy variable is linked to a model of softwood lumber and plywood markets. The policy of providing payments to share the cost of softwood reforestation on non-industrial private forest land is examined. Projections with these models indicate that as a result of low levels of pine regeneration in the South softwood stumpage prices will rise faster than previously expected to the year 2000. Forest industry will provide a greater share of the southern softwood timber harvest in the future. Public benefits of cost-share programs, measured by discounted changes in producer and consumer surplus, are shown to exceed program costs. Substantial increases in cost-share payments for reforestation can reverse the projected decline in nonindustrial softwood inventory and harvest, but will have little effect before the year 2010. Forest Sci. 31:342-357.
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