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Nonlinear Regressions and Contour Plots: Techniques for Selection and Transfer of White Ash Provenances

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Survival and tree height of white ash provenances after 5 years in 20 plantations were analyzed by regression techniques and a contour plot procedure. Both traits were more closely related to latitude than to longitude and elevation of seed origins. Nonlinear regression models for latitude gave a better fit than linear models in 13 plantations, indicating that neither trait is simply related to origin latitude. The quadratic and cubic models improved the fit of the regressions by up to 56 percent for survival and 44 percent for height. The polynomial models also improved the fit for longitude but less than for latitude. Additional improvement was obtained from a contour plot procedure that used origin latitude and longitude as independent variables in a third degree regression model. The technique was more successful for height than for survival and for plantations containing range-wide material or a large number of provenances. Contour plots appear promising as a way to choose provenances and to predict their performance at given locations from a limited number of test sites. The method should be useful for determining how far a given provenance can be moved and in the delineation of seed zones. Forest Sci. 30:441-453.

Keywords: Fraxinus americana; height growth; response surfaces; survival; variance components

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Principal Plant Geneticist, USDA Forest Service, North Central Forest Experiment Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Carbondale, Illinois 62901

Publication date: 1984-06-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2015 Impact Factor: 1.702
    Ranking: 16 of 66 in forestry

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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