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Climate and the Southern Pine Beetle in Atlantic Coastal and Piedmont Regions

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This report describes a large-area model that relates temperature and precipitation data to changes in southern pine beetle outbreak intensity. The model first transforms monthly mean temperature and total precipitation data with principal component analysis, and then uses the resultant linear combinations to predict a percent coverage indicator in ten climatic districts in Atlantic Coastal and Piedmont regions. While the model usually correctly estimates the sign of the coverage change from the previous year, it usually underestimates the magnitude. However, the analysis indicates that substantial changes were estimated 1972, 1974, and 1977, the three years in which coverage figures change the most from the previous year. The principal components were calculated from a very reliable 48-year record, and then were statistically related to a county coverage record from 1960 through 1980. The resultant model is applicable to a larger region than is previously published work. Forest Sci. 30:143-156.

Keywords: Dendroctonus frontalis; large-area modelling; pine beetle/host relationships; principal component analysis

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: State Climatologist for Virginia and Assistant Professor, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903

Publication date: 1984-03-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2016 Impact Factor: 1.782 (Rank 17/64 in forestry)

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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