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An Optimal Control Theory Model to Estimate the Regional Long-Term Supply of Timber

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This paper develops and applies a Supply Potential Optimal Control (SPOC) model which examines the potential long-term supply of timber harvests. The model incorporates features that allow it to deal with questions of the economically optimal rate of drawdown of existing old-growth stands, as well as to project the optimum harvest levels after the transition has been completed and a steady state ensues. An optimal control theory algorithm is used to solve the problem. The model is applied to hypothetical data and the results are presented. Forest Sci. 29:798-812.
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Keywords: Economic optimization; forest plantations; long-term timber production projections; old-growth inventories; regeneration; timber harvest scheduling

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Senior Fellow and Director, Forest Economics and Policy Program, Resources for the Future, 1755 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20036

Publication date: 1983-12-01

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    Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2016 Impact Factor: 1.782 (Rank 17/64 in forestry)

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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