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Optimal Stocking Levels and Rotation Under Risk

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The usual joint optimization of stocking levels and rotation length discussed under the deterministic assumption is generalized to probabilistic cases. A probabilistic dynamic programming model is constructed to resolve the difficulties introduced. Every value in the deterministic model is replaced by an expected value in the probabilistic model, and the objective is to optimize the expected value. An example showing how to use the developed model to solve the optimal stocking levels and rotation problems under probabilistic growth for Douglas-fir is presented. The effects of various degrees of indeterminateness, or risk in growth prediction, are that for larger variance of growth prediction, optimal regimes involve shorter rotation, lower stocking levels and lower mean annual increment. Forest Sci. 28:711-719.

Keywords: Pseudotsuga menziesii; deterministic model; dynamic programming; probabilistic model; thinning

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Management Science, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan, Republic of China

Publication date: December 1, 1982

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  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2015 Impact Factor: 1.702
    Ranking: 16 of 66 in forestry

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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