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DMLOSS: A Simulator of Losses in Dwarf Mistletoe Infested Black Spruce Stands

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A model estimating mortality of black spruce in pure, infested stands, based on the rate of spread of Arceuthobium pusillum and the relative annual mortality rate of infected black spruce, was incorporated into a computer program called DMLOSS. In this program, a coordinate system is used to input stand boundaries and infection center locations. Other inputs are: stand age, rotation age, basal area, site index, radii of infection centers, stumpage value, discount rate, and control cost. Using areas of mortality and control projected by the model, DMLOSS calculates standing volume, volume lost to dwarf mistletoe, volume saved by eradicating dwarf mistletoe and control cost at 10-year intervals to rotation age. Although the model has not been empirically validated, the sensitivity analysis performed to examine model assumptions indicated that even when the impact of dwarf mistletoe is estimated conservatively, investments in control can provide substantial financial return. DMLOSS provides a means for assessing future impact of this disease, and can be used to develop regional estimates of losses as well as assisting forest managers in choosing management alternatives in individual stands. Forest Sci. 28:590-598.

Keywords: Arceuthobium pusillum; Picea mariana; epidemiology

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Professor, College of Forestry, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108

Publication date: September 1, 1982

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