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A model estimating mortality of black spruce in pure, infested stands, based on the rate of spread of Arceuthobium pusillum and the relative annual mortality rate of infected black spruce, was incorporated into a computer program called DMLOSS. In this program, a coordinate system is used to input stand boundaries and infection center locations. Other inputs are: stand age, rotation age, basal area, site index, radii of infection centers, stumpage value, discount rate, and control cost. Using areas of mortality and control projected by the model, DMLOSS calculates standing volume, volume lost to dwarf mistletoe, volume saved by eradicating dwarf mistletoe and control cost at 10-year intervals to rotation age. Although the model has not been empirically validated, the sensitivity analysis performed to examine model assumptions indicated that even when the impact of dwarf mistletoe is estimated conservatively, investments in control can provide substantial financial return. DMLOSS provides a means for assessing future impact of this disease, and can be used to develop regional estimates of losses as well as assisting forest managers in choosing management alternatives in individual stands. Forest Sci. 28:590-598.
Professor, College of Forestry, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108
Publication date: September 1, 1982
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Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.