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Notes: Estimating the Annual Probability of Southern Pine Beetle Outbreak

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Logistic regression equations which predict the probability of southern pine beetle attack for a stand of given characteristics are modified to better represent actual attack probabilities in years with different conditions than those in which the data used to develop the equations were collected. This is done by first predicting the number of spots expected to occur in a region in a year and adjusting the attack probability equations to reflect the indicated increase or decrease in insect activity levels. The method is demonstrated using results from past research in East Texas. Forest Sci. 28:202-206.
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Keywords: Dendroctonus frontalis; logistic regression; mortality

Document Type: Miscellaneous

Affiliations: Research Scientist, Westvaco Corp., Summerville, SC 29483

Publication date: 1982-06-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2016 Impact Factor: 1.782 (Rank 17/64 in forestry)

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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