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Notes: Estimating the Annual Probability of Southern Pine Beetle Outbreak

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Logistic regression equations which predict the probability of southern pine beetle attack for a stand of given characteristics are modified to better represent actual attack probabilities in years with different conditions than those in which the data used to develop the equations were collected. This is done by first predicting the number of spots expected to occur in a region in a year and adjusting the attack probability equations to reflect the indicated increase or decrease in insect activity levels. The method is demonstrated using results from past research in East Texas. Forest Sci. 28:202-206.

Keywords: Dendroctonus frontalis; logistic regression; mortality

Document Type: Miscellaneous

Affiliations: Research Scientist, Westvaco Corp., Summerville, SC 29483

Publication date: June 1, 1982

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