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A Severity Model for Southern Pine Beetle Infestations

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Abstract:

A model has been developed to simulate the spread of southern pine beetle infestations using stand level variables. The model consists of two principal functions: (a) a function to predict the rate of spread, in terms of trees killed per day, and (b) a function to predict the probability of a spot becoming inactive. Spot growth can be simulated with these two relatively simple functions. A FORTRAN program was written using this model to simulate the growth of southern pine beetle infestations and was tested with data collected from eleven independent sample spots. There were 270 trees killed on the independent sample spots over a period of approximately 120 days from June to October. The average of ten simulation trials gave 266.97 trees killed. Thus, the simulation program predicted 1.12 percent fewer trees killed than were observed in the test data. It was concluded that damage estimates for individual infestations are not very precise, but the model performs well in predicting the overall physical damage level. Forest Sci. 27: 290-296.

Keywords: Dendroctonus frontalis; mortality; simulation

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Associate Professor of Forest Entomology, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29631

Publication date: 1981-06-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2015 Impact Factor: 1.702
    Ranking: 16 of 66 in forestry

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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