Gypsy Moth Population Simulation for Wisconsin

Authors: Biging, Gregory S.; Giese, Ronald L.; Nordheim, Erik V.

Source: Forest Science, Volume 26, Number 4, 1 December 1980 , pp. 710-724(15)

Publisher: Society of American Foresters

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Abstract:

A method for assessing the likelihood of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), survival in a newly invaded territory is presented. Regression models of gypsy moth populations observed in several host groups were developed from population history in New England from 1911 to 1931 and spring and winter weather variates. A stochastic simulation model of population growth was developed which incorporated Wisconsin weather information. Trials indicated survival throughout the state with higher population levels indicated for all host groups in the north and northwestern portions of Wisconsin than in the south. This prospective anomaly may reflect inherent drawbacks in extrapolating beyond the data base utilized in model construction. Forest Sci. 26:710-724.

Keywords: Lymantria dispar; modelling; weather

Document Type: Journal article

Affiliations: 1: Departments of Forestry and Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 53706

Publication date: 1980-12-01

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