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Gypsy Moth Population Simulation for Wisconsin

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A method for assessing the likelihood of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), survival in a newly invaded territory is presented. Regression models of gypsy moth populations observed in several host groups were developed from population history in New England from 1911 to 1931 and spring and winter weather variates. A stochastic simulation model of population growth was developed which incorporated Wisconsin weather information. Trials indicated survival throughout the state with higher population levels indicated for all host groups in the north and northwestern portions of Wisconsin than in the south. This prospective anomaly may reflect inherent drawbacks in extrapolating beyond the data base utilized in model construction. Forest Sci. 26:710-724.
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Keywords: Lymantria dispar; modelling; weather

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Departments of Forestry and Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 53706

Publication date: 1980-12-01

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    2016 Impact Factor: 1.782 (Rank 17/64 in forestry)

    Average time from submission to first decision: 62.5 days*
    June 1, 2016 to Feb. 28, 2017

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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