Notes: Is Succession in Hardwood Forests a Stationary Markov Process?
Past research has applied stationary Markov models to three kinds of problems arising in forestry: individual tree level models of forest succession, plot/canopy gap level models of forest succession, and stand level analyses of specific forest management problems. This class of stochastic model rests on two assumptions concerning the probability of the system moving from one state to another. First, the transition probabilities do not change over time--the process is stationary. Second, once the system is found in some specific state, the probabilities for the next transition do not depend on the path taken to get to that state--the Markov property. One plot level model of forest succession indicates that the stationarity assumption is violated. More complex models, Markov or otherwise, are needed to represent adequately the complicated spatial and temporal dynamics of forest succession. Forest Sci. 26:566-570.
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Document Type: Miscellaneous
Affiliations: Assistant Professor of Forestry, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 205 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511
Publication date: 1980-12-01
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