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Notes: A Method for Estimating the Probability of Southern Pine Beetle Outbreaks

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A methodology is presented for estimating a continuous measure of southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.) incidence which, under certain sampling conditions, may be interpreted as the probability of outbreak in a stand. Probability of outbreak is predicted from site, stand, and/or insect population variables using a logistic probability function and provides a more general incidence index than categorical classification methods used in the past. The model, estimation procedures, and example calculations are discussed. Forest Sci. 25:265-269.

Keywords: Dendroctonus frontalis; hazard index; risk rating

Document Type: Miscellaneous

Affiliations: Associate Professor of Forestry, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26506

Publication date: June 1, 1979

More about this publication?
  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
    Forest Science is published bimonthly in February, April, June, August, October, and December.

    Also published by SAF:
    Journal of Forestry
    Other SAF Publications
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