Long-Term Forecasting of Major Forest Products Consumption in Developed and Developing Economies

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A methodology is developed to describe the process of growth of consumption of major forest products within developed and developing countries. The model recognizes the special characteristics of each country by introducing current consumption and gross domestic product as explanatory variables for future consumption. Gross domestic product is the driving force in the growth process but the dynamic formulation of the model allows for a gradual adjustment of the consumption-GDP relationship depending upon the rate of economic growth and the initial situation of the country or region under study. Statistical estimates of the functions are calculated for 11 intermediate products using data from 130 countries observed at 10-year intervals. The results are used to assess the impact of alternative rates of economic growth on the consumption of forest products within developed and developing market economies. Forest Sci. 23:13-25.

Keywords: Dynamic consumption functions; paper and paperboard; structural wood products

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Assistant Professor, Department of Forestry, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Publication date: March 1, 1977

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  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
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