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Impact of Length-of-Run on Price Elasticities for Douglas-fir and Southern Pine Lumber

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Estimates of short-run lumber supply elasticity derived from a published econometric model developed with 1947-70 annual observations were approximately 1.5 for Douglas-fir, Southern pine, and "structural species." The short-run estimates correspond to a 1 year length-of-run under a ceteris paribus (all else constant) assumption. Two indexes of intermediate-run supply response were constructed. These correspond to a 1 year length-of-run where price induced shifts of the short-run supply function are included. Both indexes indicate that intermediate-run supply response is generally less elastic than short-run response, particularly in later years of the sample period. Differences in the increase of raw material prices and increase of industry production capacity between regions and lengths-of-run probably explain these results. Forest Sci. 21:13-22.

Keywords: Econometric model; Pseudotsuga menziesii; price elasticity; supply and demand

Document Type: Journal Article

Affiliations: Forest Economist in Forest Economics and Marketing Research, USDA Forest Service, Washington, D.C.

Publication date: March 1, 1975

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  • Forest Science is a peer-reviewed journal publishing fundamental and applied research that explores all aspects of natural and social sciences as they apply to the function and management of the forested ecosystems of the world. Topics include silviculture, forest management, biometrics, economics, entomology & pathology, fire & fuels management, forest ecology, genetics & tree improvement, geospatial technologies, harvesting & utilization, landscape ecology, operations research, forest policy, physiology, recreation, social sciences, soils & hydrology, and wildlife management.
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